Armenia vs Azerbaijan | Explained by Sohail Khan

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Let us talk about critical international news in today's article

Armenia and Azerbaijan.

These two countries are situated between Russia, Turkey, and Iran on the world map.

And there is a massive conflict ongoing between these two countries today

Some experts believe that the conflict might escalate into a full-blown war.

So, what's happening between them? What are the reasons behind the ongoing conflict?

What are the geopolitical games that are being played and what can we learn from this?

Come, let us find out about all of this in today's article.

First, let me give you an introduction because not a lot of you might know a lot about these countries.

Armenia is a small country with a population of 3 million

Its flag looks like this and the majority of the people living here are Christian.

Around 95% of its people practice the Christian religion

But, it is a secular country.

On the other hand, also, Azerbaijan is not a very big country either. It has a population of 10 million.

And it is a Muslim majority country.

99% of the people living in Azerbaijan practice the Muslim religion

But just like Armenia, this is a secular country too.

The people have the freedom to practice whatever religion they wish to

I'm mentioning their religions because superficially, it might seem that religion has a big role to play in their conflict.

But it is not so.

Historically, these countries used to be a part of the Soviet Union/USSR before the 1990s.

But when the Soviet Union split, these countries got independence

There is a disputed region in between these countries that are named Nagorno Karabakh.

The fight between these two countries is regarding this disputed region

It will be clearer when you look at the map- The orange part is Azerbaijan and the light grey part is Armenia.

The dark grey areas are Armenia occupied and the red region is the region of Nagorno Karabakh

Both these countries claim Nagorno Karabakh to be their region. Just like both India and Pakistan claim Kashmir to be theirs

And just like in the case of Kashmir, where some of Kashmir's area is under Pakistan and some area under the control of India,

Similarly, some small area of Nagorno Karabakh, near the border of Azerbaijan is under the control of Azerbaijan

But majority area is under the control of Armenia

If you zoom into the map, you will spot the dotted line, which is the Line of Control (LoC), which demarcates

where the control of Armenia and Azerbaijan is

The area of Nagorno Karabakh is a heavily forested mountainous area that is not easy to access

Very few people live here. A 2015 census stated that the population here is around 1.5 lakh people

in an area of 4,400 square kilometers

The majority of the people living here are ethnically Armenian. 99.7% of the population is ethnically Armenian

Historically, this region has remained very disputed since the 1920s. When it was under the Soviet Union,

it was a part of the Azerbaijan state but then too, it was an autonomous region

That is, it was directly controlled by the center. Back then the central government was in Moscow

And Moscow controlled this autonomous region directly

As the Soviet Union started to crumble around the 1990s, it became apparent that this region would be handed over to Azerbaijan by the Soviet Union

The ethnic Armenians living here did not like that.

Due to this reason, in 1988, the Nagorno-Karabakh legislature voted to join Armenia

But this voting based demand was not appreciated by both the Azerbaijani government Soviet government and Moscow

They strongly opposed it

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Armenian separatists seized the territory and brought it under their control

This is why ever since 1991, the Armenian controlled part of this region is ruled by Armenian separatists, who are backed by the Armenian government

even though under international law, Nagorno-Karabakh is recognized as part of Azerbaijan.

because as it crumbled, Soviet Union had declared that this part would be controlled by Azerbaijan

Ever since then, this region has remained in constant conflict. Every few years Armenia and Azerbaijan have been fighting over it

Skirmishes have been breaking out, ceasefire violations have been happening and thousands of people have been killed

The most recent example is the fight that is currently ongoing between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Before this, there was a conflict between them in 2016. Peace had reigned for a few years after that

Just like there have been several skirmishes and ceasefire violations between India and Pakistan over Kashmir

Attempts were made over the years to reach a solution. A Minsk group was also formed

headed by France, the USA, and Russia

wherein they attempted to reach a peaceful solution through mediation between the two countries.

In May 1994, Russia mediated a ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan- which gave Armenia full control of Nagorno-Karabakh

Even today, the ongoing dispute is regarding this region. The fight is taking place along the LoC

Both countries deny that they started the fight. Armenia says Azerbaijan started it, while Azerbaijan claims the opposite

But Russia plays a very important role here because Russia has close ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Russia has a military base in Armenia and Azerbaijan is one of the most significant buyers of Russian weaponry

that is Russia sells weapons to Azerbaijan. Armenia doesn't like that Russia, as their strategic allied partner, is selling weapons to their direct enemy.

historically, whenever a fight broke out amongst these two countries, Russia has always brokered peace.

But until now, no significant action has been taken by Russia to stop the fight.

Erdogan's Turkey is being seen as a key player in this conflict this time.

Turkey has openly stated that Azerbaijan is its long term ally, Armenia is in the wrong, and if Azerbaijan needs any kind of support,

they would provide them with that, even if it is military support

In response, Armenia’s Foreign Minister has said that the aggression was pre-planned.

not just by Azerbaijan but by the massive support of Turkey, Azerbaijan wants to occupy that area again.

Here, it could be argued that both Turkey and Azerbaijan are Muslim majority countries and hence they stand in support of one another

There were reports in the news that even Pakistan is sending some of its soldiers to Azerbaijan, although Pakistan has denied that.

But a bigger reason than religion here is geopolitics.

Turkey and Azerbaijan are neighboring countries. Turkey is a large country, just like India and Azerbaijan is a smaller one.

so why would Turkey not want to exercise its influence over the neighboring countries?

Turkey is one of Azerbaijan's main oil and gas importers and when things come down to oil and gas,

then what country would not try to become allies with such a country?

Along with that, Azerbaijan is one of the main investors in Turkey. Their economic ties are extremely strong.

On the other hand, relations between Turkey and Armenia have been unfriendly because, during the time of the Ottoman Empire

in the 20th century, one of the first genocides was conducted against the Armenians by the Ottoman Turks

which both Turkey and Azerbaijan deny

In my opinion, to understand the motivation behind this conflict, it is necessary to understand the internal politics of both countries

The fact is, on the face of it, Azerbaijan is a republic, but it is a dictatorship.

When the country became independent, Heydar Aliyev became the President. After him, his son became the President

Arkham Aliyev - who is the President of Azerbaijan even today

Since 2003, he has been winning one election after the other with a vote share of 80% or more

which makes it clear that there is no opposition. The opposition is jailed and there are no free media in the country.

They too are jailed. There are more than 160 political prisoners in Azerbaijan

Whoever raises their voice against their President, goes straight to jail

Recently, Ilkham Aliyev changed the lower age limit for becoming the President from 35 years to 18 years.

A lot of people believe that he did so to pave the way for his son to become the next President in 2025.

It is almost like a monarchy- father and then son keep ruling the country one after the other.

There are no independent NGOs or independent media in the country

This is why the rank of this country on the democracy index is 146 out of 167 countries.